Managing disease risks to an endangered species: identifying cost-effective tools through viral genomics and modelling

Infectious disease represents a growing threat to endangered species, but tackling this threat is technically challenging. Pathogens which cause catastrophic mortality within threatened populations are typically able to persist elsewhere, in host species with larger populations (especially people or livestock), in host communities of multiple species, or in the environment. The resulting host-pathogen dynamics can be highly complex, making it difficult to design cost-effective management approaches.

The African wild dog is a globally endangered species, severely impacted by epidemics of viral disease. Fortunately, mass vaccination of domestic dogs against rabies, conducted to protect people, has been shown to also protect wild dogs. However, it is unclear whether this approach could work for canine distemper virus (CDV), another key wild dog pathogen with a complex epidemiology involving both domestic dogs and wild carnivores.

This PhD will quantify the role of domestic dogs in the epidemiology and management of CDV in African wild dogs. By sequencing viral genomes from wild dogs, domestic dogs, and jackals which died in a devastating Kenyan CDV epidemic, the student can analyse the contributions of different species to local transmission. Using advanced phylogenetics applied to multiple CDV outbreaks across Africa, they can map continent-wide transmission patterns. Then, they can use the insights gained to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different CDV management approaches, by modifying a previously-developed model of viral pathogens within African wild dog populations. Their findings will feed directly into conservation guidelines for managing disease risks to African wild dogs, which are shared with conservation managers.