Impact of climate change on the monsoon cycle in Southeast Asia

Any variations in the natural seasonal cycle can have profound impacts on society. For example, longer than usual summers exacerbate the risk of heatwaves and wildfires. This PhD project investigates how long-term climate change and climate variability (e.g. El Nino/La Nina) influence the natural seasonal cycles of rainfall in Southeast Asia. This research will involve analysing the timing, duration, and intensity of the regional monsoons and intervening dry periods across historical observational data, ensemble seasonal forecasts and future projections being produced for the next IPCC assessment report (i.e CMIP7). The aim is to identify changes in seasons and assess their implications for different sectors, such as agriculture or water resources. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the region’s climate dynamics and supports the development of strategies for adaptation in the face climate change. Some potential topics that can be explored are below:

a) How the rainfall seasonal cycle has changed in the past and how it is projected to change in the future for Southeast Asia?
b) What are the chances of record-breaking events such as prolonged monsoon or dry season in the current climate?
c) What is the relative impact of internal variability and external forcings (e.g. El Nino/La Nina vs climate change) on the length and duration of rainfall seasons?
d) How well can we predict the timing and length of monsoon or dry season using current prediction systems?