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Enhancing the resilience of coastal catchments to climate change: a socio-ecological-technological system modelling approach
Project Description
Coastal catchments are vulnerable to sea-level rise and changing hydrometeorological conditions that will impede drainage and increase flood risk. These catchments can be viewed as socio-ecological-technological systems that depend on interplay between hydrological and coastal processes while sustaining human populations and activities. Climate change brings likelihood of higher peak river flows and sea levels, increasing flood risk, whilst drainage, flood and coastal protection infrastructure is often in a poor state of repair.
This situation is exemplified in NW England, where tidal rivers are degraded after decades of weak management, placing homes, livelihoods, ecosystems and critical infrastructure at risk. A prime example is the River Winster (discharging into the Kent estuary, Morecambe Bay), which experiences frequent flooding, poor soil conditions and damage to the embankment carrying the strategically important Cumbrian coast railway. Lack of government action has prompted formation of a unique stakeholder partnership to better understand these challenges and formulate bottom-up solutions to restore catchment resilience. The Lynster Farmers Group (LFG) comprises over 40 agribusinesses and landowners. A key priority is to restore the hydrological functioning of the Winster to enhance resilience of ecosystems, communities and infrastructure to climate change. LFG is the CASE partner of this PhD project.
LFG have funded dredging of the tidal part of the Winster and restoration of its training walls. Initial hydraulic modelling by UCL has demonstrated the beneficial effects of channel restoration but no comprehensive hydrological / tidal estuary models exist to develop wider principles for future management. Central to this PhD is implementation of coupled hydrological / tidal / ecological models to establish a scientific basis for understanding the system and to evaluate interventions to mitigate current and projected future flood risks. Research questions and future climate and management scenarios will be co-developed with LFG, who bring a wealth of local knowledge. This will lead to participatory modelling using proven model codes (MIKE SHE, HEC-RAS, Telemac) in a novel combination to understand the interplay between catchment hydrology and estuary dynamics. Simulations of a broad suite of climate change (e.g based on UKCIP) and management scenarios will enable resilience metrics to be identified covering environment, socioeconomics, and infrastructure. These can be tracked over time, underpinned by LFG-led 'citizen science', to guide wiser locally led catchment management.
Research themes
Project Specific Training
The PhD student will be hosted in the UCL Department of Geography where both HEI supervisors are based. They will be integrated within the Department’s Environmental Modelling Group, which provides a supportive community of ECRs and PhD students undertaking allied research that includes strong field and computational components. The student will have access to the Department’s extensive field equipment, which will supplement dedicated instrumentation funded by the studentship’s RTSG and the LFG. This includes hydrometric (e.g. current meters) and survey equipment (e.g. dGPS). Departmental laboratories have facilities for custom-building field equipment and there is a dedicated technician who can support and train, as necessary, PhD students and (subject to their availability) assist with field work. Both HEI supervisors have extensive experience of training PhD students, especially in advanced numerical modelling as well as field survey and hydrometrics. Training in modelling software will be undertaken on a one-to-one basis using existing real-world models / data sets, an approach successfully employed for previous PhD students, whilst the student will also have access to advanced MSc modules featuring some of this software (Telemac and MIKE SHE). Training in field techniques will be provided using a similar hands-on approach, either at the field site or at more local sites of broadly similar characteristics. The student will, as for all TREES students, have access to extensive additional training and development opportunities provided by the DLA. Within Geography there are extensive opportunities to engage with the academic life of the Department including teaching and field classes.
The PhD student will also spend time working with various LFG stakeholders to co-formulate an understanding of the contemporary hydrological and tidal dynamics of the Winster Catchment, and the constraints imposed by drainage and flood and coastal protection infrastructure that dates back to the 19th century. They will use concept mapping methods to synthesise local and external expert knowledge, and work with LFG to identify suitable monitoring sites, and install and calibrate a network of smart sensors, principally for water-level measurement. In Year 2, the PhD student will work with LFG to co-develop a range of climate change scenarios as well as a variety of management options, including nature-based flood mitigation, agricultural practices and drainage system maintenance and adaption. Workshops will be organized to formalize understanding of the concept of resilience and to identify a suite of quantitative metrics that can be used to implement monitoring and modelling of overall socio-ecological-technological system resilience. Towards the end of the PhD programme, policy documents will be co-produced and disseminated via a policy-makers forum, at which LFG and other local stakeholders as well as key representatives of government (including the three regional MPs), agencies, NGOs, and industry (e.g. Network Rail) will be brought together.
This innovative PhD project thus provides an exceptional opportunity to combine models and modelling approaches (physical processes and higher-level resilience metrics) to provide holistic understanding of the Winster in the broader context of the Kent estuary. It will provide a blueprint for a new approach to challenges brought by climate change and decaying flood management infrastructure in an age when central government funding is limited and top-down management lacks agility, fails to appreciate local needs and offers poor value for money. Stakeholder-led participatory modelling and locally-funded management could be extended to other UK catchments and has potential to reduce burden on central government while empowering communities to build resilience, restore ecosystem functions and contribute to national climate policy goals. The project aligns with NERC priorities relating to UK climate resilience, regional impact from science of the environment and the effectiveness of natural flood management.
Project supervisor/s
Prof Jon French
Geography
University College London
j.french@ucl.ac.uk
Prof Julian Thompson
Geography
University College London
j.r.thompson@ucl.ac.uk