Advancing seismic risk assessments through consideration of detailed fault geometries and slip-rates

Active fault locations and slip rates are the principal controls on earthquake locations and recurrence. However, geological fault data are generally under-used for earthquake risk assessments, which generally rely on shorter-term data that does not capture the full geography of seismic hazard. Models have been developed that allow for fault-based seismic hazard assessment, but these generally use simplified fault geometries and slip-rate data. Findings within the supervisory team for this project show how the detailed geometry and changes in rates of deformation along faults affect recurrence rates and shaking intensities. 

This PhD project will propagate the effect of explicitly considering fault geometries for damage and risk assessment, normally dominated by engineering considerations and more simplified hazard characterisations. There is an opportunity to bridge the gap between earthquake geology, engineering, and risk assessment to show how refined geology methodologies can impact decision-making for single buildings and infrastructure (e.g., retrofitting, strengthening) or portfolios (e.g., calibration of insurance premiums).